The Conservatives in Cambridgeshire can win again and can beat UKIP. They need to do 2 things to win.
1. Freeze and then cut council tax.
2. Communicate with the electorate with leaflets
Sounds easy. Yet this isn't aren't the easy options. Councils such as Fenland and Huntingdonshire have little room for manoeuvre if at all. For instance, Huntingdonshire has to increase council tax and cut spending to keep afloat. So freezing and cutting council tax is pretty much out of the question for some Councils/Local Authorities. In any case all Conservative run Local Authorities need to sign up to the Conservative policy of a Council Tax freeze.
Since moving to Cambridgeshire I haven't received a Conservative political leaflet outside of the election period and sometimes during an election. This is awful communication. The only way to ensure electors get your message is by delivering a leaflet on a regular monthly basis or quarterly at an absolute minimum.
The Conservatives Associations are in decline. Huntingdon CA lost 20% of its membership in 2012. Other faired better losing less membership. The Conservatives need more members and friends to get their message out and communicate with the electorate.
If the Conservatives don't do anything to reverse the UKIP leap forward, come the General Election in 2015 UKIP will be in a position to take Conservative seats of Huntingdon, North West Cambridgeshire and North East Cambridgeshire.
Wednesday, 29 May 2013
Sunday, 26 May 2013
Why did the Conservative lose in Cambridgeshire?
In two words - Council Tax.
The Conservatives are currently blaming "the national situation" and "national policies" and, of course, the County Conservatives did nothing wrong! But they did. Cambs Conservatives didn't institute the Council Tax freeze after year 1. That is not just the County Council. Conservative run District Councils, The Police and The Fire Authority all ignored the Council Tax freeze and the funding that came with this Conservative pledge.
Ignoring this pledge gave UKIP and the Liberal Democrats a cause to run with. Campaigning on keeping council tax down, UKIP ran riot in areas where they campaigned. The Liberal Democrats held onto their share of the vote to win in some areas.
Whilst UKIP did well, the Independents did well winning in Histon, St Neots and in Cambridge. They took two seats from the LD's and two seats from the Conservatives.
Labour did well in Cambridge by taking seats from the Lib Dems. But the Lib Dems held on to some of their seats.
The maxim seems to be ignore your own parties policies at your peril. The trouble is the Conservatives have yet to come to terms with not Freezing Council Tax. When they do they will realise they were wrong and not the electorate.
The Conservatives are currently blaming "the national situation" and "national policies" and, of course, the County Conservatives did nothing wrong! But they did. Cambs Conservatives didn't institute the Council Tax freeze after year 1. That is not just the County Council. Conservative run District Councils, The Police and The Fire Authority all ignored the Council Tax freeze and the funding that came with this Conservative pledge.
Ignoring this pledge gave UKIP and the Liberal Democrats a cause to run with. Campaigning on keeping council tax down, UKIP ran riot in areas where they campaigned. The Liberal Democrats held onto their share of the vote to win in some areas.
Whilst UKIP did well, the Independents did well winning in Histon, St Neots and in Cambridge. They took two seats from the LD's and two seats from the Conservatives.
Labour did well in Cambridge by taking seats from the Lib Dems. But the Lib Dems held on to some of their seats.
The maxim seems to be ignore your own parties policies at your peril. The trouble is the Conservatives have yet to come to terms with not Freezing Council Tax. When they do they will realise they were wrong and not the electorate.
Wednesday, 22 May 2013
Nick Clarke still doesn't get it
I had to laugh when I found out Nick Clarke, now ex-leader of Cambs CC, lost his seat at Fulbourn. The result is below:
The result in 2009 was:
Without the Independent candidate this left 906 or 26.3% of the voting public looking for a home.
In his blog Nick Clarke said:
No one should be surprised by this as the minority parties smell blood. But it is a shame that a protest vote about immigration, which is a national issue, should derail an energetic and enthusiastic council that was gaining a national reputation for getting things done.
I don't feel this is right. True immigration is an national issue and Council Tax Freeze is a national issue which Nick Clarke and the Cambs Conservatives ignored and raised council tax. If they had frozen council tax and still lost they could have blamed national policies. But you can only blame if you implement policies in the first place.
Nick also reckons he lost because he moved to Papworth Everard. His own vote held up in % terms. A loss of 3.3% is not as massive as other divisions. So why did Nick lose? Notice there is no UKIP candidate standing in Fulborn. Where were those who would have voted UKIP gone. Many sat at home. A large minority went and voted for the Liberal Democrats.
Nick was in a bad position form the start. Not having a UKIP candidate meant the vote went to the Lib Dems. In the end that is why Nick Clarke lost. No UKIP candidate.
Nicks blog also shows how out of touch he is. Nick said:
Response on the door step in my Fulbourn division remains very positive.
IUTVT: Not positive enough to win!!!
This afternoon I took time off from my own division to go and help James Hockney fight the Waterbeach seat. James is very well thought of locally and clearly understands the local issues.
IUTVT: And the Liberal Democrat still won!
It seems that only a Lib Dem perspective can justify such a ridiculous statement.
IUTVT: And the Liberal Democrat still won!
I am playing in a charity cricket match Wednesday evening starting at 6pm, at the Needingworth cricket ground in aid of bowel cancer. The electioneering can wait for an evening.
IUTVT: Obviously electioneering couldn't wait because Nick lost!
I nipped up to join a canvassing team in Histon later in the day. Great response. Lots of indications that people get the financial problems we face and think we are the party to put it right.
IUTVT: The Conservatives didn't win here either.
Nick Clarke has an arrogance about him in all the decisions he took as leader were all correct. What the Conservatives need to get over is some of the decisions are wrong especially over raising Council Tax instead of freezing it. Until they do the Conservatives will keep losing.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Clarke | Conservative | 848 | 32.2 |
| June Patricia Ford | Labour | 434 | 16.5 |
| David Smith | Green | 169 | 6.4 |
| John George Williams | Liberal Democrat | 1,180 | 44.8 |
The result in 2009 was:
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Clarke | Conservative | 1064 | 35.6 |
| Josephine Patricia Teague | Labour | 235 | 7.8 |
| John Neal Scarr | Independent | 906 | 30.3 |
| John George Williams | Liberal Democrat | 785 | 26.3 |
Without the Independent candidate this left 906 or 26.3% of the voting public looking for a home.
In his blog Nick Clarke said:
No one should be surprised by this as the minority parties smell blood. But it is a shame that a protest vote about immigration, which is a national issue, should derail an energetic and enthusiastic council that was gaining a national reputation for getting things done.
I don't feel this is right. True immigration is an national issue and Council Tax Freeze is a national issue which Nick Clarke and the Cambs Conservatives ignored and raised council tax. If they had frozen council tax and still lost they could have blamed national policies. But you can only blame if you implement policies in the first place.
Nick also reckons he lost because he moved to Papworth Everard. His own vote held up in % terms. A loss of 3.3% is not as massive as other divisions. So why did Nick lose? Notice there is no UKIP candidate standing in Fulborn. Where were those who would have voted UKIP gone. Many sat at home. A large minority went and voted for the Liberal Democrats.
Nick was in a bad position form the start. Not having a UKIP candidate meant the vote went to the Lib Dems. In the end that is why Nick Clarke lost. No UKIP candidate.
Nicks blog also shows how out of touch he is. Nick said:
Response on the door step in my Fulbourn division remains very positive.
IUTVT: Not positive enough to win!!!
This afternoon I took time off from my own division to go and help James Hockney fight the Waterbeach seat. James is very well thought of locally and clearly understands the local issues.
IUTVT: And the Liberal Democrat still won!
It seems that only a Lib Dem perspective can justify such a ridiculous statement.
IUTVT: And the Liberal Democrat still won!
I am playing in a charity cricket match Wednesday evening starting at 6pm, at the Needingworth cricket ground in aid of bowel cancer. The electioneering can wait for an evening.
IUTVT: Obviously electioneering couldn't wait because Nick lost!
I nipped up to join a canvassing team in Histon later in the day. Great response. Lots of indications that people get the financial problems we face and think we are the party to put it right.
IUTVT: The Conservatives didn't win here either.
Nick Clarke has an arrogance about him in all the decisions he took as leader were all correct. What the Conservatives need to get over is some of the decisions are wrong especially over raising Council Tax instead of freezing it. Until they do the Conservatives will keep losing.
Saturday, 4 May 2013
How near was my prediction?
I predicted the Conservatives would lose control. They did!
I also predicted the following result in seats:
Conservatives 30
Lib Dems 18
Labour 10
UKIP 6
Independents 5
The result was:
Conservatives 32 (+2)
Lib Dems 14 (-4)
Labour 7 (-3)
UKIP 12 (+6)
Independents 4 (-1)
Not bad for a first try!
I also predicted the following result in seats:
Conservatives 30
Lib Dems 18
Labour 10
UKIP 6
Independents 5
The result was:
Conservatives 32 (+2)
Lib Dems 14 (-4)
Labour 7 (-3)
UKIP 12 (+6)
Independents 4 (-1)
Not bad for a first try!
Thursday, 2 May 2013
My prediction for the 2nd May 2013 elections for Cambridgeshire County Council.
% of votes:
Conservatives 32%
Liberal Democrats 15%
Labour 15%
UKIP 24%
Independents 10%
Green 4%
In terms of seats out of 69 seats
Conservatives 30
Lib Dems 18
Labour 10
UKIP 6
Independents 5
Lets see how wrong I am be tomorrow.
The Conservatives will lose control of Cambridgeshire County Council.
% of votes:
Conservatives 32%
Liberal Democrats 15%
Labour 15%
UKIP 24%
Independents 10%
Green 4%
In terms of seats out of 69 seats
Conservatives 30
Lib Dems 18
Labour 10
UKIP 6
Independents 5
Lets see how wrong I am be tomorrow.
The Conservatives will lose control of Cambridgeshire County Council.
Tuesday, 30 April 2013
Reason 9 not to vote Conservative: Nick Clarke just doesn't get it!
Nick Clarke in a recent blogpost said:
"I made the point that whilst I am not an expert on planning I do have the largest democratic mandate, representing all 680,000 people of Cambridgeshire."
Nick isn't directly elected. Nor was Nick leader at the time of the last County Elections in 2009. Therefore he doesn't have a mandate. If Nick held a referendum over Council Tax increases he would have a mandate to increase these taxes. He won't do that. If Nick gets a majority on 2nd May 2013 he may also have a mandate. Until then Nick doesn't have a mandate for anything!
"I made the point that whilst I am not an expert on planning I do have the largest democratic mandate, representing all 680,000 people of Cambridgeshire."
Nick isn't directly elected. Nor was Nick leader at the time of the last County Elections in 2009. Therefore he doesn't have a mandate. If Nick held a referendum over Council Tax increases he would have a mandate to increase these taxes. He won't do that. If Nick gets a majority on 2nd May 2013 he may also have a mandate. Until then Nick doesn't have a mandate for anything!
Monday, 29 April 2013
Nick Clarke is due for a fall
I took this (below) from Nick Clarke's blog about how everything is looking rosy. It may well be from his perspective. But that isn't the problem. From what I'm reading Nick is missing the point. For all the achievements Nick has a problem and that are the Council Tax rises. Of course when you are met on the doorstep by the Leader of the County Council you are hardly going tell him to go away. No let him witter on, say goodbye and close the door. Then go and vote UKIP or Lib Dem or even don't go and vote at all.
From his blog looks like he is going to romp home in Fulbourn and the Conservatives will romp home in Cottenham, Histon and Impington. Not long to find out!
Conservative campaign – positive and well received
April 20, 2013
A great day in my division. Lots of leaflets dropped and some great chats. I have been encouraged by the many offers of help and messages of support.
Speaking on the doorstep, unhappiness with national politicians of all parties is raised. When I have explained our local priorities of protecting the vulnerable, helping people live healthy and independent lives and driving the economy they get more engaged.
When I explain what we have been up to over the last two years people can see we are a party of getting things done rather than talking about it.
It’s great to be able to talk about Superfast broadband, the new station in Cambridge, bringing forward the A14 upgrade, the Ely bypass and more. Opposition parties can’t claim any success because they are not able to deliver anything. All they can talk about are promises for the future with not track record.
I have had lots of comments about the Lib Dems. People are confused because they are in coalition in government but want to appose all the time. How can they look both ways, I’m asked? If you know the Lib Dems like I do it’s not just two ways they look they can normally mange half a dozen.
I nipped up to join a canvassing team in Histon later in the day. Great response. Lots of indications that people get the financial problems we face and think we are the party to put it right. Labour is still, rightly, held to blame for the mess we are in. Again lots of confused people not understanding where the Lib Dems sit, in coalition or opposition.
I bumped into David Jenkins, the Lib Dem candidate for Histon. We had a pleasant chat. Apart from being perpetually negative about everything I like David. It must have been a shock to him seeing a dozen Conservatives, one county council leader and an MEP all knocking on doors in his street.
Overall a very positive day.
From his blog looks like he is going to romp home in Fulbourn and the Conservatives will romp home in Cottenham, Histon and Impington. Not long to find out!
Conservative campaign – positive and well received
April 20, 2013
A great day in my division. Lots of leaflets dropped and some great chats. I have been encouraged by the many offers of help and messages of support.
Speaking on the doorstep, unhappiness with national politicians of all parties is raised. When I have explained our local priorities of protecting the vulnerable, helping people live healthy and independent lives and driving the economy they get more engaged.
When I explain what we have been up to over the last two years people can see we are a party of getting things done rather than talking about it.
It’s great to be able to talk about Superfast broadband, the new station in Cambridge, bringing forward the A14 upgrade, the Ely bypass and more. Opposition parties can’t claim any success because they are not able to deliver anything. All they can talk about are promises for the future with not track record.
I have had lots of comments about the Lib Dems. People are confused because they are in coalition in government but want to appose all the time. How can they look both ways, I’m asked? If you know the Lib Dems like I do it’s not just two ways they look they can normally mange half a dozen.
I nipped up to join a canvassing team in Histon later in the day. Great response. Lots of indications that people get the financial problems we face and think we are the party to put it right. Labour is still, rightly, held to blame for the mess we are in. Again lots of confused people not understanding where the Lib Dems sit, in coalition or opposition.
I bumped into David Jenkins, the Lib Dem candidate for Histon. We had a pleasant chat. Apart from being perpetually negative about everything I like David. It must have been a shock to him seeing a dozen Conservatives, one county council leader and an MEP all knocking on doors in his street.
Overall a very positive day.
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