Sunday, 21 April 2013

First prediction on who is going to win.

The 2009 County Council elections were held in tandem with the Euro elections. This meant many voters who wouldn't normally vote because the party they support wasn't standing at the County were standing in the Euros.

Cambridgeshire County Council election, 2009
PartySeatsGainsLossesNet gain/lossSeats %Votes %Votes+/−
 Liberal Democrat2355033.3%33.7%70,030
 Labour Co-op001−10.0%0.7%1,409
 Monster Raving Loony00000.0%0.3%566
 UK First00000.0%0.1%117

This led to a fall in the major votes when voting at the Euros. The main losers were the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The main gainers were UKIP and the BNP (where are they now?).

For 2013, UKIP has got a candidate in many of the seats. This is both dangerous to the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

The total number of seats up for election are 69. In 2009, the Conservatives won 42, Liberal Democrats 23, Labour 2, The Greens 1 and UKIP 1. Therefore the Conservatives need 35 seats to have an overall majority. Anything less and the Conservatives will lose to No overall control.

From what I have seen the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are defending the seats they currently hold and are looking to make any advances. Instead of sweeping elections this fight for the County Council is really about the Conservatives hanging on and other parties making small but significant gains.

Lets look at the individual parties:

Conservatives: They need to retain as many seats as they can. Lose 8 seats from their current total and they remain the largest party but not in overall control. Where the Conservatives properly campaign they should still win, though with a much reduced share of the vote. Where they take their support for granted UKIP could do very well.

Liberal Democrats: They are being targeted in Cambridge by a resurgent Labour Party (why of why didn't people get hurt last time!). Where the Liberal Democrats really campaign I expect no set back. Their vote will fall dramatically where there is minimal or no campaigning.

Labour: Targeting Cambridge Divisions because this is a target seat for the General Election. Labour needs to take 10 seats in Cambridge to be doing well. All seats and they have Cambridge sown up.

UKIP: Winning will depend on the number of seats they can gain. Putting a candidate up in most seats is a tactic. Though whether this will payoff is a different matter. UKIP needs to do well. This means they need to get more than a gain in the number of seats. If they do well they need 5 seats. Fantastic is 10 seats. Breakthrough is 15 seats. The trouble with UKIP hype is Nigel Farage over eggs the position.

Independents: There are a few Independents standing mainly in St Neots. The Conservatives could lose seats here.


This election is hard to call. The Conservatives could really lose control. The Liberal Democrats could hold onto many of their seats and make gains from the Conservatives as the UKIP vote bites.
Labour has to start to take control of Cambridge to be in sight of a General Election win. UKIP could do well but really needs to campaign.


Conservatives: 32 seats
Liberal Democrats: 21
Labour: 8
Independents: 3

This would result in a truly hung council with no party or 2 party coalition able to govern. What would be needed would be a grand coalition between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

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